The IMF chief warns energy and fiscal buffers are running out, with AI-linked Asian economies faring better than low-income countries
Bangkok. The global economy has managed to weather the blows of uncertainty so far, but its capacity to endure has an expiration date. That was the message from International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, who spoke on Wednesday at the annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank, being held in the Thai capital.
Georgieva acknowledged that the system has shown flexibility in the face of recent shocks, but she was blunt in warning that this strength is approaching its ceiling. In her view, the safety margins countries have used to cushion the blows, in both energy and public finances, are being used up.
Growth pulled in opposite directions
The head of the IMF described a landscape in which global expansion is pushed in opposing directions. On one side, disruptions to energy supply stemming from the conflict in the Middle East act as a brake. On the other, the momentum of demand tied to artificial intelligence (AI) works as an accelerator.
The net result of both pressures, according to Georgieva, is global growth of around 3.1% in 2026. The figure matches the projection the institution released in April, but falls short of the 3.4% recorded last year.
Behind the average, very different realities
Georgieva cautioned that the global figure masks sharp contrasts among regions and groups of countries. The economies that have held up best, she said, are those plugged into the AI supply chain, a bloc with a strong Asian presence that includes Thailand, Malaysia, South Korea and Singapore. They are joined by energy-exporting nations that are not caught up in conflict.
The most exposed: low-income countries and fragile states
At the other end, Georgieva placed low-income economies and states that are fragile or hit by war. Their vulnerability is greater still, she explained, when they depend on buying energy abroad or have been left out of the technology boom.
Debt at levels not seen in decades
The managing director also noted that since the spring meeting, the yields demanded on advanced-economy debt have climbed to levels not seen in decades. In her analysis, the move reflects stubborn inflation, mounting pressure on public accounts, investor demand and the growth expectations generated by artificial intelligence.
AI, a pillar of support for Asia
Georgieva had already said in earlier remarks that heavy investment in AI infrastructure is helping keep global expansion at around 3%. That process, she added at the time, is delivering significant benefits to several Asian economies that supply hardware and components, such as Thailand.
