The Federal Reserve prepares for a rate cut in September, as other central banks signal potential monetary policy easing.
The Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole conference in Wyoming, hosted by the Kansas City Fed, concluded with clear signals of a shift in global monetary policy. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech reaffirmed expectations for a rate cut at the upcoming September 17-18 meeting, boosting stock prices and U.S. Treasuries.
Powell Signals Rate Cuts Ahead
In his address, Powell emphasized that “the time has come for policy to adjust,” underscoring that while the direction is clear, the timing and magnitude of rate cuts will depend on incoming data and evolving economic conditions. He also expressed increased confidence that inflation is on a path toward the Fed’s 2% target, though he acknowledged an unmistakable cooling in the labor market.
“We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions,” Powell added, highlighting the need to focus on lessons for the Fed’s upcoming framework review.
International Perspectives
Powell wasn’t the only central banker indicating a firm path toward lower interest rates. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey noted that while it’s “too early to declare victory” over inflation, the risks of persistent price pressures appear to be receding. The Bank of England lowered its benchmark interest rate earlier this month, and Bailey suggested growing confidence in further cuts.
Meanwhile, several members of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council present at the conference, including Finland’s Olli Rehn and Croatia’s Boris Vujcic, expressed support for another rate cut next month. The ECB reduced borrowing costs in June, and Mario Centeno of Portugal called the decision to ease in less than three weeks “easy,” given the inflation and growth data.
A Meticulous Strategy Moving Forward
On the sidelines of the conference, several Fed officials shared updated views on the economy and hints at the path ahead. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said rate cuts should be “methodical,” advocating a gradual approach to monetary policy adjustments.
Similarly, Boston’s Susan Collins expressed that a “gradual, methodical pace” of cuts is likely to be appropriate, given the current economic context.
The Jackson Hole conference made it clear that the Fed, along with other central banks, is prepared to adjust its monetary policy in response to economic slowdown and decreasing inflationary pressures, signaling a potential shift toward more flexible policies in the coming months.
By Orlando J. Gutiérrez